Deciding between doing something or nothing to prevent rare and highly uncertain events
Cláudia Codeço
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
Visiting scientist at Instituto Gulbenkian da Ciência

( Here you can find the slides of the presentation )

Abstract

Concerns regarding natural or induced emergence of infectious diseases have raised a debate on the pros and cons of pre-emptive vaccination of populations under uncertain risk. In the absence of immediate risk, ethical issues arise because even smaller risks associated with the vaccine are greater than the immediate disease risk (which is zero). The model proposed here seeks to formalize the vaccination decision process looking from the perspective of the susceptible individual, and results are shown in the context of the emergence of urban yellow fever in Brazil.

Jornada Matemática SPM/CIM em Epidemiologia Teórica