About the impact of the early, asymptomatic and late stages of HIV infection the epidemic, with changing virulence,
Jaime Combardâo
CMAF/U Lisbon and Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciências, Oeiras
Portugal

Abstract

The evolution of the HIV epidemics, and its relationship with the early, asymptomatic and late stage of infection.

The HIV infection, within a host, can be described as having an acute, an asymptomatic and a late stage (AIDS). Each one of these three stages contributes differently to the HIV epidemics, due to different transmission rates and different time periods of activity. There is no agreement on the relative importance of each of these stages, but surely, they change with the demographics, transmission profiles and virulence levels (amongst others). We used a mathematical model to analyze the evolution, stability and coexistence of strains with different virulence in a high risk group and in a population with MSM (men who have sex with men), IVDU (intravenous drug users) and heterosexual groups. The contribution of each stage to the HIV epidemics was assessed in these scenarios, with stable and exponentially growing population. The effect on the epidemics, by changing the transmission rates and virulence of the strains in each of these stages, in the short and in the long term was simulated. Some strategies, for these particular situations, are presented, so as to attenuate the impact of the HIV epidemics.

Jornada Matemática SPM/CIM "Mathematical Biology"